Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-03 2.047585 2.167800 2.294218 2.437555 2.596171 2.767020 2.965898
2025-08-10 1.858757 2.023325 2.204644 2.420974 2.674391 2.964861 3.327487
2025-08-17 1.729457 1.916953 2.130008 2.393204 2.714215 3.099416 3.607001
2025-08-24 1.630622 1.832429 2.067247 2.365383 2.741054 3.209384 3.856014
2025-08-31 1.564313 1.779046 2.034156 2.366085 2.796989 3.353782 4.158235
2025-09-07 1.514217 1.740481 2.014355 2.378755 2.865135 3.515513 4.498226
2025-09-14 1.450000 1.680083 1.962551 2.344917 2.866512 3.583392 4.707386
2025-09-21 1.391659 1.623633 1.911931 2.308113 2.859100 3.635408 4.895040
2025-09-28 1.337530 1.569765 1.861464 2.267632 2.842257 3.670164 5.056659
2025-10-05 1.318760 1.559963 1.867234 2.302754 2.933497 3.871011 5.513774
2025-10-12 1.301392 1.550816 1.872822 2.337037 3.024790 4.079120 6.014296
2025-10-19 1.283717 1.540216 1.875483 2.366588 3.110145 4.284911 6.544378
2025-10-26 1.250270 1.507924 1.847917 2.352150 3.128727 4.385672 6.898404
2025-11-02 1.218732 1.477052 1.820977 2.337044 3.144933 4.483643 7.265105
2025-11-09 1.185644 1.442855 1.787897 2.310834 3.141080 4.545417 7.566081
2025-11-16 1.154627 1.410426 1.755971 2.284559 3.134942 4.601778 7.865284
2025-11-23 1.134033 1.391579 1.742426 2.285222 3.172764 4.741562 8.386377
2025-11-30 1.118132 1.378620 1.736630 2.297189 3.229902 4.923145 9.054028
2025-12-07 1.089941 1.347652 1.703712 2.265224 3.209399 4.951685 9.334882
2025-12-14 1.062324 1.316763 1.669935 2.230436 3.181795 4.963382 9.574011
2025-12-21 1.034981 1.285596 1.634842 2.192151 3.145808 4.954855 9.756013
2025-12-28 1.029274 1.284843 1.644317 2.225369 3.239042 5.222615 10.827313
2026-01-04 1.023548 1.283804 1.653176 2.257777 3.332896 5.503884 12.058452